12/06/2019

A Bit Too Much Bounce & Another Way to Lose Money in Auto Stocks

A Bit Too Much Bounce

The extraordinary bounce in the US market has not gone unnoticed. Perhaps not appreciated are the spots that are bouncing the most. After a sharp selloff in the fall, culminating with the collapse in December, by some measures semiconductors stocks are now at their richest valuation versus the market. First, a look at what might have been, and may well be, the state of fundamentals for those with a valuation framework.


Source: CNBC

The collapse in semiconductor shipments and global manufacturing growth suggested a revaluation of technology stocks in general. Whether a leading, coincident, or lagging indicator versus global manufacturing, continuing strength in the semiconductors appears associated with an increasingly strong view on the resumption of global manufacturing growth.


Another way to Lose Money in Auto Stocks

The big automakers, particularly those in the US and their suppliers, have been a graveyard for many value investors. Manufacturing, supplying and even financing autos has not been profitable. Are ride sharing companies just another way to lose money in a sector whose fortunes are eventually tied to the auto sector? Maybe. Lets’ first allow the benefit of doubt and look at what other call the new metrics.


Prices in excess of ten times revenues are rare. Constructive views on Uber and Lyft imply a complex bet on not only revenue growth, but also when margins might expand in what many view as a commodity business.


Source: INC Magazine

Where accounting numbers fail, some idea of value could come from the lawyers.


Source: INC Magazine

Lastly, the technical analysts do not appear to offer much comfort in valuation with what some see as the foreboding taxicab formation.

Lyft


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About Paul Blinn 16 Articles

Managing Director of Toreador Research and Trading

About Paul Blinn 16 Articles

Managing Director of Toreador Research and Trading