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- Market Forecast Project Issue #8 – March, 2010
- 25 Best Stocks of 2010, Our take on 2010’s hot stocks – Including Big Lots Inc.(NYSE:BIG), Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE:FDO)
- Kraft Foods Inc (NYSE:KFT) acquisition analysis of Cadbury Plc (NYSE:CBY)
- Don't Curb Short-Selling - The SEC resides in an unreal world.
- AFG Basic Valuation Concepts
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- Market Reviews & Special Studies
- Kraft Foods Inc (NYSE:KFT) acquisition analysis of Cadbury Plc (NYSE:CBY)
- Rafael Resendes, Investing in Large Cap Stocks
- Professional Investors Like Health Stocks – Including Medco Health Solutions (NYSE:MHS) and McKesson Corp. (NYSE:MCK)
- Solid Value Companies in the S&P 500 - Including Sprint (S), Pfizer (PFE) and Darden Restaurants (DRI)
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High Value Score Stocks – Including Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) and Gamestop Corp. (NYSE:GME)
When narrowing the market to a focus group of stocks to choose from, The Applied Finance Group (AFG) has a core set of principles we concentrate on to develop a group of stocks that are more likely to outperform the market.
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Professional Investors Like Health Stocks – Including Medco Health Solutions (NYSE:MHS) and McKesson Corp. (NYSE:MCK)
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5 Undervalued S&P 500 Stocks to Watch - Including Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE:HPQ) and Stericycle Inc.(NASDAQ:SRCL)
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Magic Formula Screen… Magical Returns?? – Including National Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV) and Lorillard Inc (NYSE:LO)
ValueExpectations.com emphasizes evaluating a company’s ability to earn a spread above their cost of capital using a very robust measure of corporate performance, Economic Margin. After evaluating a firm’s ability to create wealth VE.com then determines what price we are paying for the company using a modified discounted cash flow model. If we had to simplify performance, a very elementary way to evaluate performance can be Return on Invested Capital ROIC and valuation which can be simplified by using earnings yield. This is the approach Joel Grenblatt uses in his book, The Little Blue Book that Beats the Market.
In January VE.com highlighted a list of stocks based on Joel Greenblatt’s Magic Formula Investing Strategy from 1998-2004 Greenblatt’s simulated returns were 30.8% a year, relative to a 12.4% annual return for the S&P 500 and was only down in one year in that time-span.
In our article posted on January 9, 2009 we listed our best 30 “Magic Formula” companies which has earned returns comparable to the tests conducted by Mr. Greenblatt. From Jan. 9, 2009 to Dec. 14, 2009 the 30 companies we recommended from our “Magic Screen” have returned a solid 32.06% spread above the S&P 500. Since our last “Magic Formula” portfolio was successful we have decided to run the screen again for a new list of companies to see just how consistent this strategy is.
A look at Greenblatt’s formula for successful “Magic Formula Investing”:
1. Establish a minimum market capitalization (usually greater than $50 million).
2. Exclude utility and financial stocks
3. Exclude foreign companies (American Depositary Receipts)
4. Determine company's earnings yield = EBIT / enterprise value.
5. Determine company's return on capital = EBIT / (Net fixed assets + working capital)
6. Rank all companies above chosen market capitalization by highest earnings yield and highest return on capital (ranked as percentages).
7. Invest in 20-30 highest ranked companies, accumulating 2-3 positions per month over a 12-month period.
8. Re-balance portfolio once per year, selling losers one week before the year-mark and winners one week after the year mark.
9. Continue over long-term (3-5 year) period.
Mr. Greenblatt was a student of both Ben Graham and Warren Buffet and tried to include valuable insights from each investor in his “Magic Formula.” His Magic Formula was a screen that percentile ranked two variables: Return on Invested Capital (quality) and Earnings Yield (valuation). The idea is simple, buy the best companies at the best price and then hold on to them for one year. The Little Blue Book recommends selecting the top 30 firms from the “Magic Formula.” That formula ranks each company by variable and then puts a 50% weight on each.
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Identifying Large Cap Investment Opportunities - Including McDonalds (NYSE:MCD) Sprint (NYSE:S) and Hasbro (NYSE:HAS)
The Applied Finance Group (AFG) has a disciplined approach for identifying companies that are expected to outperform and underperform the market by using proprietary metrics and measurements that have been tested and proven through time. Because AFG’s research is fundamentally derived, AFG’s quantitative analysis spans across growth and value stocks, all sectors, industries, and market caps with over 20,000 covered securities globally. Using AFG’s proprietary criteria, AFG publishes a monthly buy/sell list to provide clients with a refined focused list as a starting point for potential investments. AFG clients can then use Value Expectations to further analyze the expectations embedded in a security’s price and to build out their own model to refine an intrinsic value of a company based on their own expectations.
When searching for Large-Cap ideas, AFG’s Buy/Sell list is a good starting place as it has proven to create a significant spread in performance between companies that come up on AFG’s buy list and those on the sell list. Further focusing on companies based on AFG’s proprietary screening criteria (Economic Margin, valuation, quality of earnings, and management’s ability to create shareholder wealth) will save investors time in their research process. The result is a target group of stocks that can help you outperform as well as identify potential torpedoes to avoid in your portfolios.
Below is a list of attractive and unattractive companies in the S&P 500 from each major sector (as defined by AFG). It serves as a focus list of companies for investors to begin with as they meet AFG’s criteria. They are more likely to outperform their sector peers and the S&P 500, the benchmark that AFG’s clients most often compare themselves with.
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Source: EconomicMargin.com
AFG's Valuation Metric – Measures the percent to target (deviation between a stock’s current trading price and its AFG current default target price). To derive the intrinsic value of a firm, AFG uses its proprietary Valuation Model (modified discounted cash flow model).
Economic Margin - A corporate performance measurement that addresses the gaps in GAAP, eliminating distortions caused by accounting policies to measure what a company is truly earning above or below their cost of capital.
Management Quality – Assesses management’s ability to make wealth creating decisions.
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S&P 500 Biggest Movers Since March 9th Bottom (ex. Financials) – Including Family Dollar Stores (FDO) Textron (TXT)
On March 9th 2009, the S&P 500 hit its low mark of the year of 666.79. Since March the market has rallied up to 1,068.78 as of the close on September 16, 2009 and we thought it timely to analyze the companies that have made the biggest gains and losses since the low and provide some insights on how we view the 10 biggest gainers and losers in the index going forward. All of the biggest movers have been ranked based on attractiveness according to The Applied Finance Group’s (AFG’s) investment criteria and valuation model. The companies with the most attractive valuations and positive Economic Margin (AFG’s measure of corporate performance) movement have proven to be more likely to outperform those companies that look unattractive according to AFG investment criteria and that look expensive within AFG’s valuation model.
The list below contains the companies that have experienced the biggest price movements in the S&P 500 since the March 9th low and how each of these companies measure up going forward, according to AFG’s investment criteria and valuation model. Companies that look attractive according to AFG’s valuation model along with improving Economic Margins have proven through vigorous back-tests to identify the company’s most likely to outperform their benchmark.
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Sales Growth Expectations for Attractive S&P 500 Stocks - Including Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Pfizer (PFE) and Sprint (S)
In recent weeks we have written several blogs (S&P 500 sector stock watch, Attractive stocks under $35, with potential investment opportunities, Solid S&P Value Companies, Cheapest Stocks In the S&P 500), discussing investment opportunities within the S&P 500. These stocks ideas all had favorable scores under The Applied Finance Group's (AFG’s) investment criteria, which includes economic performance, valuation, earnings quality and management’s ability to create shareholder wealth, among other criteria.
Another way that AFG identifies potentially attractive investments is through the use of its Value Expectations interface, which helps investors get a better understanding of the expectations embedded into stock prices. This interface allows us to understand the Sales Growth, EBITDA Margin, and Asset Turnover a company has to deliver in the future to justify its current trading price. In theory and in normal circumstances, if the imbedded future performance is very conservative relative to the company’s historical performance, the stock is regarded as undervalued. The table below displays the implied future Sales Growth (“Priced-in Sales Growth) of the companies we have recently recommended in our recent blogs, assuming their EBITDA Margins and Asset Turnovers stay at 5-year median levels.
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Solid Value Companies in the S&P 500 - Including Sprint (S), Pfizer (PFE) and Darden Restaurants (DRI)
For those Valueexpectations.com readers who consider themselves value oriented investors, we have provided a good starting list of solid value companies that look attractive as potential investment opportunities for the long term. This list is a good place to start when looking for potential companies to add to your portfolio. The Applied Finance Group (AFG) considers companies with a Market Value/Invested Capital (MV/IC) in the bottom half of the universe as value companies.
To come to our list of attractive potential value plays, We ran those companies in the bottom half of MV/IC through AFG’s buy criteria that includes Economic Margin (How profitable they are), Valuation, Management Quality (how well management is running the business) as well as other quality checks to ensure that these companies are the most likely value companies to outperform. All 10 of these companies ranked above their sector peers in expected improvement of Economic Margins and in valuation attractiveness which has proven to be a good starting point when looking to identify companies likely to outperform their benchmark.
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AFG's Valuation Metric – Measures the percent to target (deviation between a stock’s current trading price and its AFG current default target price). To derive the intrinsic value of a firm, AFG uses its proprietary Valuation Model (modified discounted cash flow model).
Economic Margin - A corporate performance measurement that addresses the gaps in GAAP, eliminating distortions caused by accounting policies to measure what a company is truly earning above or below their cost of capital.
Management Quality – Assesses management’s ability to make wealth creating decisions.
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Cheapest Stocks In The S&P 500 - High Value Score Stocks pt.3 - Stocks Include SPRINT NEXTEL (S) and PHILIP MORRIS INTL (PM)
To identify potentially attractive investment ideas, The Applied Finance Group (AFG) uses a combination of proprietary variables including valuation, economic performance, management quality, and Earnings Quality. In December of 2008, ValueExpectations.com released a list of companies sorted only by AFG’s Value Score (defined below). Our valuation techniques have proven successful at identifying mispriced securities, which has helped our clients select stocks that outperform their chosen benchmark.
The ValueExpectations.com blog posted in December 2008 (High Value Score Stocks - S&P 500), contained these high Value Score companies (DDS, S, NOV, MTW, SII, WFR, CHK), and outperformed the S&P 500 by 40% as of our 3-26-09 performance update. We recently checked the average performance of those picks through 8-27-2009 to find that they have returned an astounding 52% above the S&P 500, with 6 of the 7 companies outperforming. High Value Score Stocks Part 2, released on 5-7-09 has also outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 3% since its release, with a batting average of just over 60%.
Due to the success of the first two “High Value Score” blogs, we again used valuation as a basis for selecting a new set of investment ideas. Listed below are the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 (excluding Financials) based on AFG Value Score alone. These companies look the most attractive from a valuation perspective relative to the rest of the index.
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AFG's Valuation Metric – Measures the percent to target (deviation between a stock’s current trading price and its AFG current default target price). To derive the intrinsic value of a firm, AFG uses its proprietary Valuation Model (modified discounted cash flow model).
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P/E (Price to Earnings) - Value Plays or Value Traps
When analysts and market pundits come on tv to talk about stock picks, they usually talk about the "P/E" ratio (Price to Earnings) being attractive. However if you're investing in stocks and you only look at the "P/E" ratio, you might be walking into a "Value Trap". Investors ignore half the valuation picture when investors only concentrate on P/E as investors also need to consider the growth potential of the company and what investments are needed to get the earnings. The Applied Finance Group (AFG) has developed a process that incorporates these factors easily into the valuation framework. Using AFG’s Valuation Metric, we have compiled a list of 20 companies with low P/E, 10 of which we consider attractive investments, and 10 of which we consider Value Traps.
By using AFG's Economic Margin framework instead of earnings alone, investors capture the true net cash flow the entire firm is generating. It is not uncommon for companies to grow P/E while having declining EM’s. This occurs when the cost for the investment required to yield the increasing P/E is more than the cash flow generated from the investment. By analyzing a company’s EMs through time, investors gain a more accurate account of levels and changes in a company’s current profitability and value.
If earnings are a true proxy for performance, there should be a correlation between a company growing earnings and its price to earnings ratio. As a surprise to many investors, there is actually little to no correlation between earnings growth and price to earnings ratios (see chart below).
P/E is determined by taking a stock’s price and dividing it by the last four quarter’s worth of earnings. P/E alone should not be used to value companies. P/E does not look at a company’s balance sheet thus we do not know what the costs of generating those earnings. While the P/E is determined by looking at a company’s past performance, EM bases a company’s value off its future projections. By using EM, an investor can know how their stocks are likely to perform, allowing them to clearly evaluate where to invest.
Successful companies measure results, make decisions and set strategy with the goal of creating value. A company’s performance measures must serve as a proxy for its market value creation. While important, S-T Earnings alone are a poor indicator of a company’s value, due to what they do not measure.
Economic Margin is a more complete performance measure for companies to use to guide performance and motivate employees. Executives consider Cash Flow, Investment, Competition & Risk when setting strategy. The above charts show that investors do the same.
AFG's Valuation Metric – Measures the percent to target (deviation between a stock’s current trading price and its AFG current default target price). To derive the intrinsic value of a firm, AFG uses its proprietary Valuation Model (modified discounted cash flow model).
Economic Margin - A corporate performance measurement that addresses the gaps in GAAP, eliminating distortions caused by accounting policies to measure what a company is truly earning above or below their cost of capital.
Investment Insights from your peers, Professional Investors - The Applied Finance Group would like to invite professional investors to join AFG’s Market Forecast Project so you can better understand what your peers currently think about the market and cultivate the “wisdom of Crowds” into actionable investment ideas and themes.
Click here to learn more
AFG's Monthly Buy-Sell List
As some investors may believe the market is starting to show "signs of recovery", many of the over 200 institutional firms The Applied Finance Group (AFG) works with can always take advantage of identifying mispriced securities. While some of AFG’s clients might have a specific focus on growth or value, most subscribe to the practice of buying growth at a discount (growth at a reasonable price GARP) and avoiding “value traps.”
In October 2008 AFG released the study, Then and Now, discussing the low expectations priced into the market "Today many world-class franchises are available at expectations reflecting a very bearish future. Over 150 companies in the S&P 500 (industrials) have negative sales growth expectations embedded into their current market valuations". Following that study AFG issued another study, Analyzing Market Troughs and Rebounds, which pointed out that historical market recoveries have been typically dominated by value stocks.
Whether you are looking for value or more growth oriented securities, we have provided a list of companies in various asset classes, Large Cap Growth, Large Cap Value, Small Cap Growth, Small Cap Value that are currently on AFG’s Buy and Sell list. If you are a professional investor and would like to view a complete buy and sell list or take a trial of AFG's valuation tools CLICK HERE.
Monthly Buy/Sell list Across the Market
The Applied Finance Group has a disciplined approach for identifying companies that are expected to outperform and underperform the market by using proprietary metrics and measurements that have been tested and proven through time. Because AFG’s research is fundamentally derived, AFG’s quantitative analysis spans across growth and value stocks, all sectors, industries, and market caps with over 4,500 covered securities. By using AFG’s proprietary criteria, AFG publishes a monthly buy/sell list to provide clients with a refined focused list as a starting point for all investments. This focus List of stocks has outperformed the market on an annual basis by greater than 10% with our buy portfolio and underperformed the market by 10% with our sell portfolio. AFG clients then use Value Expectations to further analyze the expectations embedded in a security’s price (example of expectations embedded in the entire S&P500 over the next 5 years below) and to build out their own model to refine an intrinsic value of a company based on their own expectations.
Select Companies From AFG's Current Monthly Buy-Sell List
(Source: The Applied Finance Group)
Again, If you are a professional investor and would like to view a complete buy and sell list or take a trial of AFG's valuation tools CLICK HERE.
Model Portfolio Buy/Sell Results
To view how AFG defines the Large/Small and Growth/Value universe Click Here.
A brief description of some other of AFG's insights:
AFG's Valuation Metric – Measures the percent to target (deviation between a stock’s current trading price and its AFG current default target price). To derive the intrinsic value of a firm, AFG uses its proprietary Valuation Model (modified discounted cash flow model).
Economic Margin - A corporate performance measurement that addresses the gaps in GAAP, eliminating distortions caused by accounting policies to measure what a company is truly earning above or below their cost of capital.
Management Quality – Assesses management’s ability to make wealth creating decisions.
AFG's Value Universe - Companies in the AFG universe, which have MV/IC at the bottom 50% of the universe and have EPS estimates.
Stocks to Watch : S&P 500 (ex. Financials)
The Applied Finance Group’s (AFG’s) Economic Margin (EM) methodology helps investors understand what a company earns above its true cost of capital or how profitable a firm is. Companies expected to improve their Economic Margins have proven to be more likely to outperform than companies with expected EM declines. The table below provides 10 stocks expected to improve their Economic Margins in the next fiscal year and look attractive from a valuation perspective according to AFG’s valuation model. All 10 of these firms also currently have a default buy recommendation and look to have considerable long-term upside.
S&P 500 - Stocks to Watch (ex. Financials)
AFG's default valuation is a great place to start when looking for potential equity investments as our valuation techniques have proven successful through time at identifying mispriced securities and helping our clients identify investment opportunities resulting in outperforming their chosen benchmark.
AFG's Valuation Model – Using AFG’s modified discounted cash flow model to measure the intrinsic value of a firm compared to its peers. AFG's Value Score - A score which represents the ranked percent to target (deviation between stock’s current trading price and AFG’s current default target price) or attractiveness (upside) relative to the universe. A Value Score of 100 is the most undervalued and 0 is the most overvalued company in the universe.
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High Value Score Stocks - S&P 500 (Ex. Financials) Part II
To identify potentially attractive investment ideas, AFG usually uses a combination of proprietary variables to develop of focused group of potential buy ideas that meet criteria based on valuation, economic performance, management quality, and Earnings Quality. In December of 2008 ValueExpectations.com released a list of companies narrowed only by the valuation properties of the company using AFG’s Value Score (defined below). Our valuation techniques have proven successful through time at identifying mispriced securities and helping our clients identify investment opportunities resulting in outperforming their chosen benchmark. .
The ValueExpectations.com blog posted in December 08 (High Value Score Stocks - S&P 500) contained these high Value Score companies (DDS, S, NOV, MTW, SII, WFR, CHK) had returned 40% above the S&P 500 as of our 3-26-09 performance update and a recent check of that performance on 5-5-09 was even better, currently these companies have returned an astounding 64.5% above the return of the S&P 500 during the same time period (12-29-08 to 5-5-09).
In this exercise we used valuation independent of other key proprietary variables we use to identify good investment opportunities. Although valuation works well on a stand-alone basis, it works even better when used with AFG’s Economic Margin, Management Quality, and Earnings Quality variables.
Listed below are the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 (excluding Financials) based on AFG Value Score alone. These companies all look the most attractive from a valuation perspective relative to the rest of the index.
AFG High Value Score Stocks
Valuation Model – Using AFG’s modified discounted cash flow model to measure the intrinsic value of a firm compared to its peers.
AFG's Value Score - A score which represents the ranked percent to target (deviation between stock’s current trading price and AFG’s current default target price) or attractiveness (upside) relative to the universe. A Value Score of 100 is the most undervalued and 0 is the most overvalued company in the universe.
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Cheap Stocks in the S&P 500 (ex. Financials)
Below is a summary of 22 AFG Buy Recommendations from the S&P500 Index. The report highlights the 2 companies from each sector (ex. financials) that have the most attractive value score and are currently rated Buys by The Applied Finance Group, Ltd. (AFG). Factors used to derive a AFG’s recommendation include: Expected change in Economic Margins, Intrinsic Value, and Management Quality.
We also ran a VE analysis and provided the results. The VE analysis of each company is used to identify implied sales growth expectations versus what the company has delivered historically in sales growth over the past 5 years. Measuring the spread between a company’s VE sales growth expectations and what it has historically delivered should give you a good idea of which companies have the best chance of meeting or exceeding those expectations, and thus are more likely to outperform.
Cheapest Companies In The S&P 500 By Sector (ex. Financials)
Click Here, to see results of our portfolio performance using AFG's Buy/Sell criteria
A brief description of AFG's buy criteria variables is below:
• Economic Margin - A corporate performance measurement that addresses the gaps in GAAP, eliminating distortions caused by accounting policies to measure what a company is truly earning above or below their cost of capital.
• Valuation Model – Using AFG’s modified discounted cash flow model to measure the intrinsic value of a firm compared to its peers.
• Management Quality – Assess management’s ability to make wealth creating decisions.
Applied Finance Group’s (AFG’s) Value Score defined - A score which represents the ranked percent to target (deviation between stock’s current trading price and AFG’s current default target price) or attractiveness (upside) relative to the universe. A Value Score of 100 is the most undervalued and 0 is the most overvalued company in the universe.
VE Sales Growth - AFG’s Value Expectations allows us to understand the Sales Growth, EBITDA Margin, and Asset Turnover a company has to deliver in the future to justify its current trading price. In theory, if the imbedded future performance is very conservative relative to the company’s historical performance, the stock is regarded as undervalued. The VE Sales Growth displays the implied future Sales Growth of the company assuming their EBITDA Margins and Asset Turnovers stay at the 5 year historic median levels.
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AFG - CEO Super Bowl
Recently The Applied Finance Group, LTD provided rankings for CEO Magazine to identify the greatest wealth creating and wealth destroying CEOs in the S&P 500. In the spirit of the upcoming Super Bowl between the Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers, we would like to compare companies in the two respective states to see which state’s CEO is the best wealth creator.
AFG’s scoring methodology is based on its proprietary Economic Margin Framework that sets out to correct accounting distortions and properly understand the market expectations priced into a stock. Most investors understand the concept of Earnings Per Share (EPS) and are happy with the stocks they own that have the ability to grow earnings. AFG’s Economic Margin methodology shows us that earnings are important but are not sufficient to properly measure a company’s operations. AFG looks past earnings to evaluate the profitability and growth (wealth creation) of the entire operation of a business.
Economic Margin (EM) is defined as EM = (Cash Flow - Capital Charge)/ Productive Capital. In simple terms, EM seeks to measure the ability of a company to make money in excess of a risk-adjusted cost of capital. AFG used a multifactor ranking system that combines series of scores to determine a winner in each state. The system evaluates the ability of companies to sustain their historical Economic Margin performance, forecasts expected Economic Margins benchmarked against their peers, and systematically grades management. Based on those criteria, AFG has selected 6 good companies from each state.
However, if you consider investing in any of those companies, please note good companies are not always good investments. There are two components to look at for any investment: the ability of a company to create shareholder value and the attractiveness of its share price in the market. There are times when a well ran business that creates wealth is not a great investment. Investors must understand the embedded expectations they are paying for that performance and determine if those expectations are realistic for the company going forward.
Arizona Super Bowl Companies with Sales Growth Expectations Implied by Current Trading Price
Pennsylvania Super Bowl Companies with Sales Growth Expectations Implied by Current Trading Price
*Assuming a constant 5 year median EBITDA margin for each company.
*Assuming a constant 2007 EBITDA margin for FSLR.
Generally speaking, companies with pessimistic VE sales growth relative to their 5 year median sales growth are considered undervalued from AFG’s perspective, such as PETM, RRR,FCX, APOL from Arizona, and ABC, UGI, CEPH, from Pennsylvania.
And the winner is....
Cephalon Inc (CEPH) -CEPH has been a very profitable company in the last three years with very stable economic margins, much like the Pittsburgh Steelers who won the Super Bowl just three years ago. Based on AFG’s forecast, it appears that CEPH is in position to maintain its economic profitability while continuing to grow its assets.
First Solar Inc (FSLR) – FSLR is a solar module designer and manufacturer located in sunny Arizona. Helped by the growing public attention and support to alternative energy, the company has done a nice job of turning their business around from earning below their cost of capital to a high level of profitability.
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