VE.com tidbit – The Super Bowl Indicator

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For those superstitious investor’s out there, we thought we’d revisit a timely market theory called the Super Bowl Indicator. The Super Bowl Indicator states that the fate of the stock market is based on which team wins the Super Bowl that year.

If a team from the original National Football League (now the NFC) wins, the theory predicts that the market will be up for the year. If a team from the old American Football League (now the AFC) wins, then the market will be lower. This is only superstition and random chance, yet it has proven surprisingly accurate, the markets have followed the Super Bowl Indicator trend in 34 of the 43 previous Super Bowls (79% accuracy).

The good news for this year’s Super Bowl matchup and for those who believe in this theory is that both teams in this year’s matchup come from the original NFL (even though the Colts are an AFC team they originated from the Baltimore Colts, which was an original NFL team). Let’s hope the markets are paying attention on Super Sunday and that we can all enjoy positive returns from the markets for the rest of 2010.

Fun Super Bowl Facts:

Before the playoffs began in January we asked our Market Forecast Project participant’s who their favorite team to win the Super Bowl was, their answer….the Indianapolis Colts were the overall favorite with 37% of the total votes. New Orleans was 4^th on the list with only 8% of the total votes.

*source: Market Forecast Project Issue #6

Vegas Odds:

• 1. Indianapolis is a 6 point favorite heading into Super Bowl XLIV
  2. Over/Under is 56.5 points